Predictions For 1994
1994 Predictions - New Zealand
- In general, 1994 offers an improved outlook for most New Zealanders.
- El Niño conditions are becoming a regular feature of New Zealand climate. El Niño will bring air-flows from west and south ... with storms and gales. Cold fronts, from the south, will reach further north, and the southern seas will be too cold for the frontal winds to pick up very much moisture. Many NZ crops will be at risk from frost and hail. NZ weather in 1994 will tend to be unseasonal, unsettled and changeable.
- 1994 will be a watershed year for food-producing countries. Prior to 1994, terms of trade favoured manufacturing countries but, from 1994 on, terms of trade will favour food-producing countries. New Zealand's terms of trade will show a marked improvement.
- In 1994, the NZ economy will grow by approximately 5% (in real terms), of which 4% will be in official Gross National Product and 1% in increased unofficial economic activities.
- Between the legitimate market and the 'black' market of illicit goods, there is a 'grey' market of CST and income tax avoidance. 'Grey' and 'black' market dealings are increasing in NZ, and together will amount to approximately 10% of GNP in 1994.
- The 1994 rate of NZ price inflation will be about 3%.
- Local share values will be vulnerable to overseas stockmarket variations and to local political uncertainty. Share investments, generally, will be risky in 1994.
- New Zealand will concentrate its export efforts on the Asian markets, with considerable success.
- Unemployment will fall slightly in most cities, but will remain high in most provincial areas.
- Consequences of the parliamentary consensus regime of 1994 will include:
- Greater government expenditure.
- An increase of the fiscal deficit.
- An increase in government borrowing.
- upward pressure on interest rates.
- A shift of power from Cabinet to back-benchers, opposition parties and senior civil servants.
- Greater pressure on Ministers holding important portfolios.
- A halt to privatisation of public health services.
- More generous social welfare benefits.
- More financial assistance to University students.
- Amendments to the Employment Contracts Act.
- Expenditure on frigates becoming a matter of serious contention.
- Clashes between the farmer-led 'cheap imports' lobby and the labour-led 'jobs for New Zealanders' lobby (i.e. free trade v prudent protection).
A number of overseas buyers will default on export deals, failing to pay amounts due and resulting in substantial losses to New Zealanders. The credit controls of some exporters will be found wanting.
Fertiliser production and aerial top-dressing will experience a resurgence, along with higher dairy and meat prices.
With new more cost-efficient technology, wind-turbine power generation will increase rapidly in New Zealand.
Electricity prices will increase ... particularly where local distribution is given over to private investment companies.
Horticulture, generally, will become a chancier business, because of unfavourable weather conditions.
The Alliance Party will show signs of fragmentation, as New Labour puts employment first and ecology second ... while the Greens put ecology first and employment second.
As more intensive processing of exports is essential to job creation, there will be a call in 1994 for export (added-value) tax incentives.
A greater proportion of public savings will be invested, directly or indirectly, in Government stocks and bonds.
Increasing chaos will have a confusing effect on thinking concerning improvements and order. We will be like the helmsman who is told to steer north and south at the same time. Desire for order attempts one thing, and chaos dictates the opposite. As a consequence, much of the thinking of New Zealanders in 1994 will be sheared and ineffective.
Most people will feel that New Zealand has gone far enough in settling historical Maori claims ... and that Maori and Pakeha blood has sufficiently intermingled that we may be regarded as one composite race.
There will be a growing feeling that, instead of constantly adding to our 'mountain' of laws, we should cull and simplify the ones we have.
An increasing number of New Zealanders will favour a republican constitution.
In 1994, New Zealanders will have every reason to be proud of their success and behaviour across the whole spectrum of sport.
More emphasis will be placed on quality of life than on economic indices. We will realise that we have no cause to envy countries which claim to have greater per capita income. In quality of life, our society will be second to none in 1994.
The market value of most good pastoral land will increase.
NZ products and services, positively indicated by future trends, include:
- Brandless, 'no frills' retail lines; canned foods (particularly export); contraceptive and contra-Aids products; creative products (particularly those catering for popular demand); dairy products; export products for special market niches overseas; fish and fish products, for export; fruit wines; logging; meat and meat products, for export; pharmaceuticals which cater for special high-demand markets; popular entertainment; products aimed at Asian markets; protection services; safety products, systems and services; scratch-and-win gambling and sales promotions; UV protection products; wind-power generation.
Other NZ products and services, forecast to improve in 1994, include:
- Aerial top-dressing; architecture; building construction; catering; engineering; excavations, earth-moving and roading; fertilisers; herbal remedies; holiday and hotel accommodation; motor vehicle sales; real estate; retailing; tourism ex Asia.
Increasing numbers of would-be immigrants will lead to a tightening of NZ entry controls.
In 1994, we will be more at risk from solar UV, which may adversely affect our immune systems and lower our resistance to diseases generally.
New Zealand will experience earthquakes of moderate force in 1994, but the chances of quakes above force 7 on the Richter scale are very small. In 1994, NZ will probably be free of life-threatening earthquakes and volcanism.
Educationalists generally will fail to meet the challenges of increasing change ... and education will be the subject of confused debate. We will ask whether education (as now taught) is as great an asset as we have assumed.
The poor behaviour, of some police officers, will lower the police force in public esteem ... and the management and supervision of the police will be called into question.
Policing will tend to become more local in character, and local communities will supplement the regular police with citizen auxiliaries.
Arson and vandalism will increase, and consideration will be given to the location of schools, and other buildings, in patrolled enclaves.
The proportion, of youth crime to total crime, will continue to grow.
Whether it's splitting the atom, climbing Everest or winning at sports, New Zealanders know that they can do anything they set their minds to. This attitude will win out in 1994: it will be a good year ... with achievements in industry, exporting, invention, sport, entertainment, arts, political organisation, and welfare.
The influence of Gatt will be secondary to the influence of the world food shortage. When people need food, they will buy it, regardless of Gatt or any other agreement. The demand for our foodstuffs will increase in 1994.
In 1994, the people will show continued resentment that members of parliament exalt themselves from the role of servant to the role of master. 'Higher Salaries Commission' pay increases, duty-free liquor and other parliamentary perquisites will continue to be irksome to New Zealanders. Those who make democratic laws should not be advantaged by those laws ... and those, who represent the people, should not place themselves above the people.
With the upcoming MMP politics, voters will give less support to the old major parties and more support to minor parties. All parties will tend to fragment, and Parliament will become more sensitive and reactive to the wishes of the people.
New political parties will be formed, to take advantage of MMP (which requires only 5% of the vote to gain seats in Parliament).
In 1994, Maori moves (to develop strong MMP party-power) will increase fears of Maori/Pakeha confrontation.
There will be a growing realisation that, as the future calls for great flexibility, New Zealand will need to be free of restrictive international commitments.
1994 Predictions - General
- Globally, 1994 will be a year of natural disasters ... of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, insect plagues, unseasonal weather, storms, hurricanes and crop failures. El Niño will become a regular feature of world weather patterns. Food shortages will become more general as the year proceeds.
- Floods, in many countries, will be a feature of 1994. Ozone depletion will result in greater evaporation and precipitation ... and total global rainfall will increase. Heavy rains will bring major floods to flood-prone areas and, with them, landslides, destruction, food shortages and social distress.
- Politicians will seem more unreal, and they will be grouped with actors and entertainers ... and not taken seriously. They will posture and gesture and promise ... but they won't deliver. Natural forces will make the play in 1994, and geophysics will dominate over geopolitics.
- Threats to the food-chain, on which human life depends, will come from increased volcanism, ozone depletion and increased exposure to radiation (both solar-UV and man-made).
- There is a high probability of nuclear radiation leakages in 1994.
- The propositional network indicates that the incidence of volcanism and of large earthquakes will increase worldwide at the Pacific 'rim of fire' and at under-ocean construction ridges and in large land masses (such as Euro-Asia) where isostatic adjustments will take place. Some quakes will occur in areas which have generally been quake-free.
- The effects of increased volcanism will tend to offset some of the Greenhouse effects, but the depletion of the ozone layer will cause much concern.
- Measures, for the reduced use of CFC's, will fail to halt ozone depletion. CFC's already in atmosphere, together with volcanic emissions of chlorine and sulphur dioxide, will continue to deplete the ozone layer.
- Aids, and immune-deficiency diseases generally, will increase worldwide.
- Due to higher food prices, consequent upon crop failures, countries heavily reliant on food imports will experience an adverse movement in their terms of trade.
- Rising food prices will lead to a general increase of inflation worldwide.
- As pastoral production will be much less adversely affected than grain production, countries such as New Zealand will fare relatively well in 1994.
- Industrial production will decline generally, and unemployment will increase in most western countries.
- During 1994, the economic recession will continue in North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the former USSR. By contrast, many countries of East Asia will experience buoyant economic conditions.
- The USA recession will continue and the USA balance of payments will deteriorate further.
- Clinton will score low on both internal and external affairs: he will be seen as lacking in common sense and practicality.
- Japan, although economically strong, will have adjustment problems and a low growth rate of GNP.
- In the UK, the Conservatives will continue to lose support, and the Liberals will gain in strength. The UK economy will be in 'the doldrums' but will fare better than most countries of the European Community.
- Increasing migration pressure from Eastern Europe will result in more rigid entry controls and a dangerous rise of racism and Neo-Nazism in Germany and in Europe generally. The instability of Eastern Europe will tend to destabilise the whole of Europe.
- More European countries will adopt 'self-first' policies and the European Community will continue to disintegrate.
- Some western regions of Russia will detach, and become independent states. Lawlessness will increase throughout Russia, and large areas of the former USSR will be civil war zones. Lack of security, of soviet nuclear weapons, will be seen as a serious global threat.
- Rising Islamic fundamentalism will be accompanied by violence and political instability throughout the Middle East.
- There will be an increasing realisation that no nation (or group of nations) has a right to impose its religious, moral, legal, social or ecological judgements upon other nations.
- More and more people will question the role of the USA, as world leader ... that is, whether the USA is leader by the wishes of the majority of the world's peoples.
- With increasing social entropy, the real power of Governments will decrease, month by month. When power is immersed in chaos, power itself becomes chaos.
- Government expenditure will be subject to strong upward pressures, and fiscal deficits will increase in most countries.
- Competition between Governments, internationally, for deficit borrowings, will force up interest rates.
- The network indicates that long-term rates of interest will increase faster than short-term rates, and that the gap between long-term and short-term rates will widen.
- As social entropy increases, the profitability of long-term capital investments will decrease.
- The world supply of oil will exceed demand, and oil prices will be generally weak and will tend to fall through most of 1994.
- Experiencing heavy losses, some overseas airlines will lower their maintenance and safety standards ... and air-accident fatalities will increase.
- Disrespect for law, and disregard of law, will increase ... and civil disorder, violence and crime will increase worldwide.
- The UN, Red Cross, and other relief agencies, will be unable to cope with increased world needs for aid. The United Nations will be confronted with greater challenges and burdens ... and will fail to handle its tasks effectively. The use of force, in support of missions of mercy, will be proven to be ill-advised and counter productive.
- Policy disagreements, between the UN and USA (and other members), will seriously damage the UN. Bereft of funds and common understanding, the United Nations will sink to a low ebb in 1994.
- Due to increasing entropy, social disorder will increase worldwide in 1994. Man's attempts to impose order upon chaos will be as futile as Canute's attempt to stop the incoming tide.
- At present, about 30% of global trade is informal or illegal ... and this percentage is increasing. In 1994, black-market trading and smuggling will become so general that many official economic statistics will be unreliable and misleading.
- In South Africa, the Boers and the Zulus will refuse to submit to ANC majority rule. The country will move towards ultimate division into three independent states ... the Boer state of the North, the ANC-run state of the Cape, and the Zulu-run state of the Natal region.
- The low-interest policies, of flagging western economies, will continue to cause excessive share-market speculation and unsustainable share prices. Major downwards share-price adjustments will occur in 1994.
- By diverting production and employment to non-Green countries, the 'Green' movement will be seen globally as an anti-employment and anti-labour movement.
- In 1994, there will be an outpouring of compassion for the suffering, and of giving for the needy. The traumas of civil wars and natural disasters will bring out some base qualities ... but they will also bring out some of the very finest qualities of human nature.