Predictions For 1993
1993 Predictions - General
- Volcanic emissions, together with the Greenhouse and ozone-depletion factors, will result in 1993 being a year of drastic weather changes and widespread natural disasters ... notably droughts, hurricanes, floods, landslides, unseasonal cold, hail, snow, storms, crop failures and stock losses: there will be a world shortage of food.
- Worldwide, hot-spots of civil disturbance and warfare will increase in number and violence. In 1993, about one-half of the world's population will be seriously affected by social upheavals and civil wars.
- Civil wars will continue in the Balkans and further large numbers of people will become the victims of 'ethnic cleansing'. Huge migrant flows will continue, from the Balkans and other areas of eastern Europe. Many countries will close their borders to refugees, and the plight of the homeless multitude will become desperate. The European Community and the United Nations will fail to cope with the problem.
- In 1993, the European Community will continue to disintegrate, for the following reasons:
- The huge Brussels bureaucracy is too costly a burden and too unwieldy.
- The EC mainly benefits the lame-dogs of Europe: countries such as Germany, France and UK can do better on their own.
- The exchange rate mechanism is seen as a liability.
- Some European leaders are perceived as being too authoritarian.
- Loss of national sovereignty is becoming more unacceptable.
- Some Maastricht requirements are seen as being too stringent.
- Uncertainty concerning the 'poor cousins' of eastern Europe and the burden of helping them ... and the refugee problem.
- The future outlook, generally, indicates a need for more national flexibility, not less.
International flows of short-term investment monies will be flighty in 1993. They will move back and forth ... and government moves, to protect currencies, will force up interest rates. World record levels of government borrowings will reinforce the upward trend of interest rates.
In USA, below-average interest rates will cause further outflows of investment and a further weakening of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank will be forced to increase interest rates, and this move will trigger a fall of the US stock market and a drop in business and consumer confidence, which will worsen the US recession.
With Congress behind him, the new US democrat President will bring purpose and dynamics to bear on internal problems, and will reduce US involvement in international affairs. USA will become more protectionist: the simmering trade war with Japan and Europe will become a gloves-off affair. In efforts to combat the worsening recession, government spending, fiscal deficits, borrowing, inflation and interest will increase. However, the stubborn and deep-seated recession will continue.
The UK recession will continue, and the E will decrease in value on the exchanges, until UK interest rates are raised to competitive world levels. As to Europe, the UK will draw a line beyond which it will not go: it will be determined to retain its sovereignty.
In Japan, exports will fall; there will be many more business failures, including some banks; and the values of shares and real estate will fall further.
Germany will encounter further serious difficulties in absorbing East Germany and refugees, and will continue with its high interest policies, in order to enable the financing of its fiscal deficits and in order to control inflation.
Russia will suffer from massive inflation, plant obsolescence, industrial disorganisation, mismanagement and high unemployment ... and will become more unstable and less credit-worthy and more authoritarian and closer to populist revolt.
Civil wars will continue in the ex-USSR states of Tajikistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Relations between Russia and Ukraine will deteriorate. The CIS confederation will become ineffective. Large numbers of Russians, returning home to escape the persecution and turmoil of the southern states, will add to re-adjustment problems.
Increasing entropy is changing the geometry of value. Long-term, future benefit-flows become more highly discounted, and this will lower the overall value of assets. Liquidity preference and long-term rates of interest will increase. People will tend to rent rather than to buy, and long-term lenders will be scarce.
1993 will be a year of share market fluctuations and heavy losses on share dealings, on the major overseas exchanges.
The American and European economic regions will continue in recession, but China, Taiwan and a number of other Asian economies will be buoyant.
Many nations will protect themselves by political and economic measures, such as duties, quotas and other import controls. Trade protectionism will increase generally.
There will be a tendency for large nations to break down into smaller sovereign states, of people with common race, language, religion or culture. Many closely-knit social groups will seek and achieve independence.
International support for USA actions and policies in the Middle East will decline. The new US President will move to reduce US involvement in Middle East affairs.
The US will pull further back from its previous role of superpower and international policeman. It will no longer have the financial strength or political will to sustain such leadership.
The proliferation of civil wars, worldwide, will highlight the inadequacy of the United Nations as a peace-keeping agency. The power and influence of the UN will decrease in 1993.
During 1993, more nations will become nuclear-capable and, partly due to the break-up of the USSR, nuclear weapons will become more freely available.
Earth Summit initiatives will proceed at only a snail's pace, because of woefully inadequate funding.
In 1993, there will be a world-average increase of crime and civil disorder of approximately 20%.
There will be unprecedented calls for United Nations expenditure on aid and peacekeeping operations, in virtually every continent. USA will seek to impose limits on the high levels of UN member contributions.
The use of armed force, politically, will increase but, in the long-term, it will fail to achieve its stated ends.
In 1993, there will be a surgence of Islamic fundamentalism and a widening of the gap between Islamic nations and the western nations.
More people will realise that, if they restrict themselves to one viewpoint, they deprive themselves of greater truth ... for a single viewpoint is a limited model of reality. More will come to realise that, to reach the greater truth, they must embrace many viewpoints at the one and same time: this is the concept of multi-paradigmatic truth.
AIDS will continue to spread worldwide and will have particularly devastating effects in Africa and Asia.
1993 will see youth gangs becoming an increasingly serious worldwide problem.
Most 'Green' movements, around the world, will lose ground. Most communities will simply not be able to afford the costs of environmental protection. The gap, between 'Greenies' and pragmatists, will widen.
In South Africa, there will be further signs of ultimate partitioning, but violence will continue.
Worldwide, 1993 will be characterised by thoughts and actions which seek to restore order, seemingly without comprehending that increasing entropy makes this impossible. More disorder is inevitable.
During 1993, all control and corrective actions will be less effective. All 'fix it', 'improve it', 'punish it', 'direct it', 'eliminate it', 'augment it' and 'guide it' functions will be less effective than formerly.
Worldwide, many legal systems and law-enforcement agencies will fail to cope and, increasingly, governments will fail to deliver justice to the people. More and more obviously, governments worldwide, will be seen as 'Claytons' governments.
More than ever, in 1993, creative intelligence will prove to be the most important factor, by far, in any and all activities.
As entropy increases, the incidence of confusing news will increase. As a consequence, interpretive journalism will become ever more important to society. Without seeking it, journalism will find itself very much in a leading role.
With increased ultra-violet exposure (due to ozone depletion), many immune systems will be down-graded, and the incidence of a widening spectrum of diseases will increase.
A generally greater incidence and severity of volcanic and seismic activity is predicted for 1993: the areas at greatest risk (from the geophysical forces of Earth expansion) are:
- The entire Pacific 'rim of fire', including the western coasts of the Americas, and the islands of the Aleutians, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Melanesia, and the islands of the south-west Pacific. The west coast of North America is particularly vulnerable. There, the extending Pacific Ocean floor, thrusting deep under the North American continent, has become jammed, and expansion pressures have been building up.
- The geologically more recent peripheral lands of the Euro-Asian continent, such as Italy, Greece, the Balkans, Turkey, the Caucasus, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, South-East Asia, South China, and Siberia.
- The geologically older lands of Central Asia and Europe, where isostatic adjustments are likely.
1993 Predictions - New Zealand
- The effects of increased volcanism will mix with and dominate the Greenhouse and ozone-depletion effects, producing the following 1993 conditions for New Zealand:
- A cold, long winter.
- A short summer.
- Greater rainfall, in most areas which normally experience above-average rainfall.
- Unseasonal storms, hail and frost.
- Floods and landslides.
- Droughts in drought-prone areas.
- Generally poor growing conditions, with some crop failures and stock losses.
The adverse effects of increased volcanism on climate and agriculture will, on one hand, reduce our primary output but, on the other hand, improve our access to overseas markets and improve the prices we will receive. We will make net gains, economically, as a country.
People will realise that past statistics, of rainfall and temperature, are no longer a reliable guide as to the future ... and that we have a whole new 'ball game' as far as climate and weather are concerned.
New Zealand will develop as an integral part of the Asian trade zone, and will continue to benefit substantially from Asian trade. Of the three major trade zones (Asia, the Americas and Europe), Asia will show the strongest growth and offer the greatest export opportunities for New Zealand.
The positive factors bearing on New Zealand's 1993 economic performance will include good export dairy, meat and fish prices; good sales into Asia; and good results from many 'niche' export initiatives. The negative factors will include the recession in many countries overseas, and poor NZ growing conditions. The net effect will be a 2%-3% growth of our real GNP in 1993.
The 1993 economic outlook for the following businesses is good:
- Export dairy products
- Export meat products
- Export canned foods
- Export wines - (Note: Prices will be good but growing conditions will be below average)
- Export fish products
- Export 'niche' manufacturing and marketing
- Heating systems
- Creative new products
- Production and marketing directed to Asian markets.
The 1993 economic outlook for the following businesses is fair, but below average:
- Advertising; airlines; art prints; book sales; chemicals (agricultural); confectionary; electrical appliances; entertainment; freight and cartage; hotels; house maintenance; newspapers; packaging (for exports); professional services (export); real estate agencies; restaurants; security and safety products; sports equipment; and tourism.
The 1993 economic outlook for the following businesses is poor:
- Architecture; art originals; banking and finance; boat construction; building construction and supplies; chemicals (industrial and construction); civil engineering; clothing; computers; fabrics; furniture and furnishings; horse breeding and racing; importing, general; insurance; jewellery; kiwi fruit; metals; motor vehicles and garages; office equipment; plastics; printing, general; retailing, general; sharebroking; timber and timber products; and tobacco.
In 1993, the NZ dollar will firm against the US and Australian dollars, and against sterling. Most exporters will not suffer from this, for their overseas prices will appreciate faster than the NZ dollar.
The fragmentation of the European Community will lead to better access to the UK market for NZ products.
Some NZ producers will be gulled into granting extended credit to financially unsound overseas customers ... and will suffer bad debt losses as a consequence.
NZ unemployment will begin to stabilise in the second half of 1993.
Most real estate values will be steady, but dairy and meat producing land in the North Island will improve.
The Government and Reserve Bank will keep a tight control on currency and credit: inflation will be 2%-3% in 1993.
In 1993, most people will put more faith in their personal common sense, and less faith in the thinking of 'experts'. There will be a greater realisation that much 'expert' thinking, which purports to be valid and rational, is based upon dubious assumptions.
The Government Cabinet will fail to cope with increasing lawlessness; the police will have no confidence in the politicians; and the Minister of Police will find himself in an impossible situation.
There will be growing dissatisfaction with our legal and court processes, and with our overcrowded and ineffective prison system.
During 1993, NZ crime will increase by 15%-20%. Violent crime and arson will continue at disturbingly high levels.
Generally, NZ tertiary education will fall further behind the requirements of an ever more rapidly changing environment. NZ educationalists, for the most part, will fail to adapt to increasing entropy, and they will prepare students for life as it was, rather than for life as it will be.
Accelerated change will result in the overturning of old accepted ways of doing things. Because something has happened consistently before, is no guarantee that it will happen in future: the rules of tomorrow will seem different from the rules of yesterday.
The legal profession will suffer further losses of public confidence and esteem.
The failure of some insurance companies to pay out on disaster claims will highlight the fact that we are entering a future which is becoming less and less insurable.
Due to increasing entropy, changed conditions will prove many existing long-term capital investments to be ill-conceived and unprofitable. Long-term investments should be avoided, and liquid uncommitted positions should be preferred.
In 1993, it will be safer to deposit money in two 'safe' banks, rather than in one 'safe' bank.
It will be realised that leadership of the people belongs to the people, and that only they can bestow it, and that it is held in trust for them, and that they can recall it at any time. It will be seen that our present system does not always select, as leaders, those which the people prefer ... and thus we may not have true leadership. In 1993, NZ society will become restive under a system which falsifies leadership and undermines democracy.
New Zealanders are realising that, when parties gain election on one platform and proceed to govern on another, the people are being cheated and deprived of democracy. In 1993, New Zealanders will insist on more safeguards of democracy, including proportional representation and greater use of referenda on key issues. 700
There will be moves to increase the numbers of members of Parliament and to add even more by the creation of an Upper House ... but most of us will feel strongly that we have too many parliamentarians now and that we can't afford high additional costs in such a non-productive area.
In 1993, Cabinet will need to be very skilled in management but many National ministers will fail to measure up in this respect. Instead of dealing with basic causes, they will spend their time on placebos and bandaids.
More people will avoid taxes, by unofficial trading and other evasion ploys. Some of this evasion will stem from the need to survive, rather than from dishonesty as such. This will become a major government problem.
The public will judge the National Government's performance and integrity to be unsatisfactory. There will be a major swing away from National at the 1993 General Election. Labour will become the Government and the Alliance will make substantial gains.
Although struggling, we will become more positive and confident as a nation. We will show more basic strength than many other countries, including our Australian neighbours. New Zealanders will place a high value on independence and will reject political union with Australia.
Subtlely, our culture will adapt to that of our Maori and Island co-citizens and that of our eastern neighbours.
A number of earthquakes will occur in the North Island, particularly in the Bay of Plenty and East Cape areas, where some buckling and lifting is likely. There will be associated volcanic activity along the Kermadec Ridge and at White Island. However, earthquakes are unlikely to exceed Richter force 7 and unlikely to be life-threatening.