Predictions For 1992
1992 Predictions - General
- During 1992, there will be a 30%-40% decline in world oil prices, due to the effect of economic depression on demand, and increasing supply. The fall in oil prices will result in:
- A major contraction of international credit and investment.
- An acceleration and accentuation of the worldwide economic downturn.
- A major decline of the power and influence of the oil-producing Arab states.
- A lessening of western interest and involvement in the Middle East oil-producing area.
Worldwide, the number and frequency of business failures and bank failures will increase.
More and more countries will default on the repayment of government loans. Governments will find it increasingly difficult to refinance old loans and to raise new loans.
In most countries, effective consumer demand will fall.
In order to maintain international balance-of-payments solvency, many countries will be forced to restrict or discourage imports.
Trade protectionism and trade wars will push the GATT and free trade movement into the background. Politicians, both here and overseas, will continue to make noises in support of GATT, but they will fail to free-up world trade. In 1992, world trade protectionism will increase, and the volume of world trade will decline.
The United States economy will decline, by reason of:
- Automation, causing loss of jobs and loss of consumer purchasing power.
- Reduced government spending, in an effort to cut back the fiscal deficit.
- Poor trade strategy ... in that USA is out-manoeuvred by Japan and the EEC.
- Priming of the economy, via consumer credit, having reached it's limit.
- Declining work ethic, coupled with general cultural deterioration (e.g. drugs and crime).
The United States, fading from its previous supreme-power status, will no longer be able to sustain, financially, a super-power, global-policeman role.
During 1992, USA will substantially reduce its NATO-based military forces in Europe.
Worldwide, average real incomes and per capita purchasing power, will trend downwards.
In general, during 1992, business and private assets will decrease in value and economic losses will exceed economic gains.
The worldwide freedom revolution will gain momentum: it will involve the repossession of power, by the people, from their failed representatives. However, new governments installed to replace overthrown governments, will perform no better.
An implication, of increasing social entropy, is increasingly ineffective government ... Claytons government. Regardless of political 'colour' or 'flavour', any and every government will be less effective. The percentage of uncommitted or 'swinging' voters will continue to grow.
Law, law enforcement, and the institutions of justice, lose credibility and public respect: people are thrown more upon their own resources to maintain their rights and safety.
There will be political upheavals and civil wars in eastern Europe, and large migrant flows from east to west Europe.
World power alignments will change, and political power will become more widely distributed and diffused.
There will be dissension among members of the European Community, and moves to protect the national interests of member countries from further erosion.
Israel-USA relations will continue to weaken, and USA support to Israel will decrease.
In 1992, the following effects will ensue from the soviet upheaval:
- Complete collapse of the military and financial power of the USSR confederation.
- Most soviet states will gain complete independence and many will issue their own national currencies.
- There will be food shortages and serious price inflation in a number of the states.
- There will be a drastic fall in the value of the rouble.
- There will be civil warfare and anarchy, as ethnic, religious and political groups struggle for independence or ascendancy.
- Private ownership and private enterprise will spread rapidly.
- Tension and uncertainty will continue, as to the control of soviet nuclear arms and nuclear capability.
Civil wars, disease, famine, and other natural disasters, will affect the major part of the African continent.
During 1992, there will be indications that the northern Boer states, of Transvaal and Orange Free State, may break away from the Union of South Africa,
The Indian sub-continent will suffer from natural disasters, social conflict, political upheavals and economic problems.
Central and South American countries will become further depressed, economically and socially.
In most parts of the world, nations will not be under threat of invasion or attack from outside powers: most nations will be far too preoccupied with internal problems to attack other nations.
Politically, the communists will be a spent force. In many countries, communists will resist capitalism, but such resistance will decline.
Insurance companies will face higher claim payouts and will lose profitability: many insurance companies will collapse.
Company shares, and other risk investments, will decline in popularity and in public support.
Proliferation of information will create a 'noise' factor which will tend to 'fudge' prioration, relevance, validity and verity.
The entertainment aspect of communications will tend to obscure the factual aspect of communications.
Distinctions, such as those between right and wrong; good and evil; friend and foe; rational and irrational; important and unimportant; successful and unsuccessful; trustworthy and untrustworthy ... these, and other distinctions, will become less clear ... more blurred or 'fudged'.
Increasing physical entropy will be accompanied by increasing social entropy: areas of anarchy will increase in number and extent. Order-vacuums will grow, as anarchy spreads worldwide.
During 1992, Earth expansion will cause increased volcanism, increased magma flows at construction ridges, and increased continental rifting and crustal adjustments, generally.
There will be increased volcanic activity in the Japan-Okinawa-Philippines-Indonesia-Tonga-NZ arc and in Hawaii, as well as increased magma flows from the active Pacific oceanic construction ridges.
There will be a world-wide increase in the incidence and severity of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Earthquakes will occur, not only in recognised seismic zones, but also in areas which have had no recent earthquake experience.
Crustal adjustments, required by Earth expansion, will occur in the large continents ... particularly in geologically recent lands, such as those of California, Iran, Caucasus, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Siberia. Sizeable earthquakes are expected in these areas.
Volcanic-ash emissions will have a local cooling effect, while the 'Greenhouse' effect will tend to heat up the atmosphere. The combined ash and 'Greenhouse' effects will play havoc with weather, worldwide ... leading to crop failures, droughts, floods, landslides, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Diminution of the ozone layer will continue. Increased ultra-violet exposure, affecting genes and immunity systems, will lead to increased incidence of Aids, herpes, hepatitis, skin cancer and genetic defects.
Increases in levels of surface radiation will be detected, including radiation levels in new magma, issuing from volcanoes and oceanic construction ridges.
During 1992, creative intelligence will attain new heights of invention, art, music and scientific discovery.
1992 Predictions - New Zealand
- Low overseas demand will result in poor financial returns for most export industries. Falling export demand will further reduce local consumer demand, causing more business failures and increasing unemployment by 15-20% during 1992.
- National will continue to lose public support and will confirm it's ranking as one of the most unpopular governments in the history of New Zealand.
- The National members' revolt (calling for a more hands-on approach, support of local industries and increased job opportunities) will gather momentum. Public pressure, on caucus and cabinet, will force a policy change and a handover of the finance portfolio.
- The people become more conscious that political power is vested in them and that their representatives have no power to act contrary to the will of the people.
- The public will insist that government policies must ensure that the burdens of economic and social adjustment are shared equitably among all sections of the community.
- People will react negatively and strongly to empty rhetoric and deviousness, from politicians and others: only effective leadership, by example, will be acceptable to the public. The public will judge on what is done and not on what is said: cynicism and pragmatism will be the order of the day.
- During 1992, the rates of interest will start to rise, due to decreased saving and increasing difficulty in the financing of government loans, overseas and locally.
- The rate of inflation, for 1992, will be 2%-3%.
- Economic activities, which will face adverse conditions in 1992, include:
Advertising; airlines and the aero industry; architecture; art; banking and finance; boat construction; building construction and supplies; chemicals (agricultural, industrial and construction); civil engineering; clothing; education services; fabrics; fertilisers and top-dressing; furniture and furnishings; heating systems; holiday, hotel and motel accommodation; horse breeding and racing; horticulture; household appliances; insurance; jewellery; knitted goods; local body services; meat farming and processing; metals, generally; motor vehicles; newspapers; office equipment; printing and publishing; real estate; restaurants; retailing; sports equipment; stock and station agencies; stock foods; textiles; tobacco; tourism; wool farming and processing.
- Commodity markets, generally, will be depressed, but there will be profitable business and employment opportunities in respect of innovative new products, aimed at both overseas and local markets.
- Company dividend levels and share values will fall, and public interest in share investments, generally, will decline.
- There will be a marked increase in the level of informal cash and barter transactions, and of tax avoidance generally.
- During 1992, the economic emphasis, in New Zealand, will start to change from a 'laissez faire' approach to an 'intelligent management' approach.
- 1992 will see some movement, in New Zealand, from 'authoritarian' democracy to 'peoples' democracy ... to more attention to public opinion and towards government which is responsive to the wishes of the people and pays less heed to bureaucrats.
- During 1992, the authority and standing of bureaucracy and bureaucrats will be reduced.
- The new political Alliance will gain further public support and will emerge as a strong contender for the next General Election.
- For 1992, the investment rule will be to invest in short-term bank deposits.
- Large business corporations will tend to be too inflexible and too unwieldy to cope with future conditions, which will change ever more rapidly. The more successful businesses will tend to be centred about capable individual entrepreneurs, who are unfettered by commitments and shareholders.
- Business will gravitate more towards cash dealing; retailers will tend to stock more on a 'sale or return' basis; short-term employment contracts will become more common.
- Increasingly, New Zealanders will recognise that they must buy NZ-made goods, in order to create NZ jobs ... and that every person suffers as a result of high unemployment.
- Increasingly, the public will be able to frustrate government intentions, as more confidential information is leaked to the media. The media will be blamed by government, unfairly, as a contributing cause of the events they report.
- Experts and specialists will be less and less effective, from a control point of view: they will so differ among themselves that their advices will tend to cancel out.
- Monopolies and protectionist professions will become the butts of public distrust and disfavour.
- Increasingly, parliamentarians will be seen as opportunistic power groups, which serve their own interests before the interests of the people.
- Voter party-loyalty will become very fragile; party support will change rapidly and new governments will lose support quickly; an increasing percentage of voters will declare no party preference and will indicate disenchantment with the democratic process.
- With a general decline of tolerance, there will be less tolerance of injustices, poor government, shifty politicians, rip-offs, inefficiencies, inflexible bureaucracy, authority, cover-ups, secret agendas, bossy minorities, abuses of privileges, political 'perks' and 'nest-feathering'.
- Increasingly, the public will feel that their intellectuals are letting them down. They will feel that university graduates, generally, are not effective in helping the community to cope with current and up-coming challenges ... and that, in spite of all the tax-subsidised higher learning, the state of society and the conditions of living are deteriorating.
- Standards of behaviour and integrity will decline further.
- New Zealand's social destabilisation (measured by rates of crime and civil disorder) will increase by approximately 15%-20% in 1992.
- New Zealand will fare better in 1992 than most countries around the world. our general level of health and well-being will continue to be very good, as compared with most overseas populations. Our sports people will continue to excel.
- New Zealand will be recognised, internationally, for the fairness and lack of corruption of its policing and judicial systems.
- Special overseas 'market niche' opportunities will be discovered and exploited by enterprising New Zealanders.
- There will be opportunities for profitable export-import, mutual credit and barter trade deals ... requiring entrepreneurial initiatives and organisational skills.
- The number and complexity of laws and regulations will increase and, as they increase, their effectiveness will decrease. The effectiveness of laws will be in inverse proportion to their number and complexity.
- By their positive, practical work, compassionate and caring religious and social workers will be enhanced in public esteem.
- The public's attitude towards marriage will continue to change and informal partnerships, between the sexes, will become almost the norm.
- New Zealanders will copy overseas cultures less, and take more pride in their own excellent and unique culture.
- New Zealand Pakehas will realise, more than ever, just how much of the Maori culture they have absorbed, and how much they have been enriched by it.
- New Zealand will be recognised as a world leader in matters ecological, and the cleanliness of our country comes in for praise.
- New Zealanders will pull back a little from minding other peoples' business, overseas, and they will concentrate more on getting their own house in order.
- The Pacific tectonic plate will continue to push against the east coast of the North Island, causing buckling and lifting, from the Wairarapa to the East Cape. However, earthquakes in this area are unlikely to reach 7 on the Richter scale ... that is, they are unlikely to be life-threatening. There will be increased activity at White Island.
- During 1992, the people will repudiate the National government. On principle, they will protest and frustrate government moves: there will be a stand-off between the people, on the one hand, and a discredited government, on the other hand.
- In 1991, New Zealand took a step towards being ungovernable: in 1992, New Zealand will take a further step in that direction.