Prediction Science / 1. Successful Predictions
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1. Successful Predictions
My detailed predictions, for the four years 1990 to 1993 inclusive, are set out in the Appendix. The 1990 predictions included the Tokyo stock-market crash and the decline of communism. It was also predicted that higher levels of ultra-violet radiation (due to ozone depletion) would further damage immune systems ... leading to an increase of Aids and other diseases.
The 1991 predictions foretold the deepening of the USA recession; the fall of city real-estate values; the emergence of anarchy, to replace communism as the main threat to democracy; increasing unemployment; increasing crime and lawlessness; and increasing seismic activity worldwide (Note: Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 ... the second biggest eruption this century). The rapid disintegration of the USSR was also predicted.
The 1992 predictions foretold a worldwide increase in the incidence and severity of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, including areas with no recent earthquake experience (Note: The Dutch-German quake of April 1992 was in a normally quake free zone). An increase of trade protectionism was forecast, and a weakening USA was seen as slipping from its supreme power status. Governments generally were seen as becoming less effective ... and, with more civil wars and lawlessness, anarchy was seen as increasing worldwide. Large migrant flows, from East to West Europe, were predicted. The cooling effect, of large volcanic emissions, was forecast ... and it was indicated that the combination of volcanism and Greenhouse would cause widespread natural disasters.
The 1993 predictions warned of natural disasters (droughts, floods, hurricanes, crop failures, etc) and of a world shortage of food. Increasing civil warfare, violence, disorder and crime were also forecast ... with the United Nations proving inadequate as a peace-keeping agency. It was predicted that the European Community would disintegrate further, and that America and Europe would move further into recession ... while Asia would be stronger economically ... and Russia would suffer massive inflation and come closer to populist revolt. Increased volcanism and seismic activity was forecast around the Pacific 'rim of fire'.
When readers peruse the 1990-1993 detailed forecasts, in the Appendix, they will observe that the predictions range over virtually all human affairs. The 90%+ accuracy of the forecasts is due to the soundness of the macro-model ... that is, of the propositional network. The prediction means and processes, described in this book, enable the reliable forecasting of general trends ... but some minor inaccuracies may occur in relation to timing. Work is continuing with a view to achieving an even higher percentage of accuracy.
As a matter of record, the predictions were published, in the Wellington (NZ) 'Evening Post' newspaper, as follows:
www.NormanSpencer.co.nz / Prediction Science / 1. Successful Predictions