Prediction Science / 3. Economic, Social and Political Implications
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3. Economic, Social and Political Implications
All matter is composed of energy and, as energy tends to randomise, all nuclear particles lose energy over time. This fact is recognised in the second law of thermodynamics ... the law of entropy. Although a lot of work has been done on the physical effects of entropy, very little attention has been given to its social effects. The propositions of the network attempt to remedy this defect.
The growth of human creative intelligence correlates with growth in the amount of energy released, from mass, by mankind. A priority task of creative intelligence down the ages has been to devise ways of releasing energy, from its enmassed potential state to a released kinetic state. Energy release progressed from primitive heating and cooking by wood fires, to the release of the calorific food energy of husbanded grains ... to the harnessing of animal power, water power, wind power, coal power, chemical power, gas power, steam power, and oil power ... to the generation of electricity and, finally, the release of nuclear energy. The creative intelligence is an entropic agency without peer.
Until 1945, growth of energy release correlated with the growth of human population for, until the nuclear advent, its net effects were beneficial to organic life. But, from the beginning of the nuclear age, the release of kinetic energy started to exceed the biological needs of mankind. The year 1945 sees the curve of released energy diverge from the population curve ... following a path of exponential growth and, finally, reaching infinite growth about the year 2020, by which time mass will be converted to singularity.
The excess of energy released, over and above the biological needs of mankind, will have an increasingly harmful effect on the human race, causing population growth to lose momentum. There will then be a levelling off of total population, followed by a decline, until the dispersal event, at approximately 2020.
The graphs of propositions 400-415 show the predicted effects of increasing entropy in respect of population, cohesion, unemployment, government expenditure, currency inflation, world trade, social liberty, anarchy, and other factors. Readers should bear in mind that these effects will vary from country to country: the graphs show generalised worldwide trends.
World population projections are shown in proposition 417, and projected rates of energy-release are shown in proposition 418. It should be noted, from proposition 420, that the rate of social entropy is predicted to increase at approximately ten times the rate of physical entropy.
As creative intelligence becomes more powerful, society's cohesion becomes weaker, and all social control factors become less effective. Laws and law enforcement will become less effective in future, and governmental powers will wane until governments become such in name only. A paradoxical twist of future events is that most people will not recognise that it is they, themselves, who are creating the anarchy ... and they will persist with all kinds of 'fix-it' and 'control-it' measures, while they themselves prevent such measures from being effective: they will fail to recognise that it is their own creative intelligence which is causing anarchy.
It is symptomatic of social entropy that information will proliferate and will 'fudge' prioration, relevance, validity and verity ... and that the entertainment aspect of communications will tend to obscure the factual aspect of communications. People will become more and more cynical as to truth: they will tend to say ... 'what is truth anyway?'
Not only governments, but all institutions and business corporations, are forms of order and, as society randomises, all institutions lose cohesion and disintegrate. All organised efforts weaken and job opportunities decrease.
It is important to note that the total quality of cohesion is not reduced. Human beings absorb the cohesion, and other qualities, which they take from their environment. The human race is essentially qualitative and can only advance by absorbing the quality of its environment. However, total quality, including the quality of cohesion, is absolute and undiminished.
In all human affairs, creative intelligence inputs become more important than financial capital inputs. As physical and social randomisation proceeds, all physical and social assets decline in value. As remainder-time shortens, future benefit flows and asset values decrease, and interest rates increase. Greater government borrowing (due to high expenditure and high fiscal deficits) will contribute to upward pressure on interest rates.
As a race, we will become more qualitative and we will be forced by circumstances to make do without many gadgets and luxuries which we previously considered to be indispensable. Most education systems and methods will continue to teach people how to cope with order-scenarios but not how to cope with anarchy. Increased volcanism will bring cold and unseasonal weather and, with it, crop failures and food shortages. Other natural disasters, and also civil wars, will add to food shortage problems.
Large political units will split up into smaller groups ... and these will rally under banners of religion, race, language and necessity. With the rapid and cataclysmic changes of the future, the powers of nations will be affected markedly. Treaties and commitments will not be worth the paper they are written on. Strategically, emphasis will be given to stance ... but strategy is mainly about physical time-space, and that is running out.
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