5. The Prediction Process
The three main elements of the prediction process are:
We will consider each of these in turn.
The Propositional Network
Before attempting prediction, one must thoroughly absorb the network and it's philosophy. The macro, or broad aspects, are of the greatest importance: it is essential to fully understand the macro forces in action. These forces are our guides, as we move amongst a disorienting maze of detail. When confused, one should always return to macro basics.
The essential thesis of the network is set out in proposition 1900. As we (the human race) metamorphose from material to spiritual form, we absorb the quality of our material environment ... and this causes the environment to randomise. Spiritually, we are now developing rapidly as individuals, at the expense of our physical environment. Until we fully grasp this point, we will fail to comprehend the essential philosophy.
The Collection of Data
Think of the propositional network as a model of existence ... and match it and compare it with current events. Check out the network against what is actually happening now. Look for events and data which appear to agree with the network, and those which appear to disagree with the network. Note departures from norms and any unexpected developments. Keep abreast of new discoveries in all fields of knowledge ... and give particular attention to Earth-science observations. Gather information of races, cultures, political and religious movements ... looking carefully for any build-ups of tension. Note what each race is interested in, and to what issues they accord priority ... and ascertain what each government is trying to achieve.
A network operator, or predictor, monitors world events continually and, when events appear to conflict with the network, he investigates the seeming inconsistencies. Usually, variations from network trends are episodic, and do not represent a radical trend-change. Sometimes, new scientific data becomes available which calls for amendments or additions to the network. A case in point is the recent discovery of the stratospheric deinsolation layer ... see proposition 3348.
The network itself also indicates where further data is needed. The network grows like a plant and reaches out it's 'roots' in all directions ... seeking the nourishment of new data and new concepts. A network operator is always engaged on further fact-gathering and research.
The Skills and 'Know-How'
The skills and 'know-how' of the predictor, or operator, depend upon a blend of intellectual comprehension, experience and 'feel'. An intelligent person tends to absorb a mass of detail and to convert it into 'feel' ... which is a kind of intuitive intelligence. This 'feel' is essential to the prediction process. This 'feel' involves realistic abstraction ... as distinct from 'ivory tower' unrealism. The predictor needs to be an active participant in life's drama: he needs to empathise with the existentialist's angst and the pragmatist's down-to-earth cynicism. He needs to be at one with the essential race dynamic ... with the racial instincts ... and needs to prehend the future, as the race prehends it's future.
The predictor needs to see life as a whole, and must embrace both the material and spiritual aspects of life ... and avoid rejection of idealist and spiritual viewpoints. The predictor needs to apply a multi-paradigmatic and instrumentalist approach ... and, in so doing, he makes a quantum leap of understanding. He must work continually to eradicate or neutralise his personal biases.
The predictor's motto could well be ...
'Anything goes, as long as it enables us to accurately predict the future'.
The predictor uses the network as a tool or instrument. He does not need to 'prove' any one proposition, or group of propositions. Accuracy of prediction is sufficient justification, as far as the predictor is concerned.
The longer the predictor has been observing the flow of current affairs, the better. The experienced observer acquires an empathy with the directions and flows of events. In the forecasting of financial or economic affairs, it helps if the predictor has knowledge and experience in these areas. The same observation applies in matters of geology, biology, climatology, and so on: it is very helpful to have knowledge and experience in the particular areas in which predictions are being made.
Many authorities are conflicting in their analyses and summations ... and you will come across much 'fence sitting' by specialists in various fields of knowledge. Then, the predictor may resort to the key propositions and macro basics of the network to arrive at his own assessments.
The network is more reliable in predicting trends than it is in pinpointing precise timing of future events: therefore, one needs to be very careful in respect to timing. Often, one will be able to predict that an event will occur within, say two years, but may be unable to zero-in on a particular date. In such cases, one should be honest with oneself and with everyone else concerned.
Another difficulty, in making predictions, is that qualitative and spiritual aspects have to be handled carefully ... for the average person finds them hard to grasp. It is usually advisable to settle for 'down-to-earth' predictions which nine out of ten people can understand and relate to.
The predictor is advised to take plenty of time and care in the creation of predictions. Prediction of the future is a delicate and sensitive matter. The word 'creation' is used advisedly, for the predictor must so empathise with the future that he or she feels it happening, and almost lives it in prevision.
Those, who are seriously interested in this subject, should read what the philosopher Whitehead has said concerning prehension, for a good predictor will feel and grope for the future. A good predictor will feel as much in the future as in the present ... perhaps even more so ... and will come to see the present as a 'déjà vu' film. Once the predictor has done all the preparatory work carefully and has made the predictions, he or she should have absolute faith in them, and should have the courage to state them and to stand by them.
Each predictor will develop his or her own methods and I can only speak for may own. Personally, I screen out all future possibilities which do not have at least a 90% probability rating. Also, I make predictions on an annual basis. Most people find the distant future too difficult to comprehend ... but they can readily cope with a one-year-ahead perspective. Also, it is easy for people to check out the accuracy of predictions on an annual basis.
There remains the question of fear ... that is, of the fearful reactions of those who read seemingly direful predictions. What we lose materially, we gain spiritually ... but many are unable to appreciate the spiritual gains and, such as these, may become anxious and stressed. How does the predictor stand on this question? Does he tell the whole story, full and true?, or does he water it down or soften it or even tell white lies? Personally, I believe strongly in truth and honesty. In my view, it is arrogant to play around with the truth: it should be told pure and it should be told straight.