Appendix III
Predictions For Year 2000
- 2000 will be a serendipity year for New Zealand: it will be a year of fortunate outcomes. In respect of politics, exports, industry, local business, employment, welfare, morale and sports, breaks will come New Zealand's way ... and there will be unexpected discoveries and gains, with positive spin-offs for the whole country.
- Helen Clark, and her government, will lead us back to the 'sharing and caring' ethos, which comes naturally to our society and which we are most comfortable with. Helen will become the much-loved mother of our nation.
- The new centre-left Cabinet will provide the best leadership New Zealand has had for decades. A sound strategic stance will be developed, involving every aspect of government.
- In 2000, past ethnic angst will abate, and we will enter the new millenium with all our peoples merging into a one-spirited and progressive society.
- Parliament will 'lift its game' in 2000, and MMP will start to work satisfactorily.
- State owned enterprises will be reviewed as to their objectives, responsibilities, direction, powers and control. They will be 'reined in' and required to be managed efficiently and frugally, ensuring full value received for every dollar spent.
- With a strong export-led recovery, the NZ economy will improve by 5%, in terms of real GNP, in calendar 2000.
- Improved export earners will include dairy, tourism, fishing, manufacturing, timber products, biochemicals, wine, films ... and general (n.e.i.) earners such as computer software, telecommunications, banking and consultancy.
- Exports will be assisted by a lower NZ dollar (in the US47¢-US52¢ range), and by new government export assistance programmes.
- An economic priority for New Zealand, in 2000, will be to protect its efficient industries against imports priced on low wages and differential costings.
- As New Zealand continues to spend more on imports than it earns on exports, some tariff protection will be seen as a common-sense measure. In New Zealand, and globally, pragmatic policies of economic cooperation will win out over unrealistic policies of defenceless free trade.
- 'Buy NZ` will be strongly linked to job creation and to good citizenship.
- In 2000, New Zealand will start to rebuild the essential industrial infrastructure (of skills and subsidiary services), which has become dangerously eroded under the previous laissez-faire regime.
- Improved performance of the Far-East economic bloc (particularly Japan), in 2000, will benefit our export sales and prices substantially.
- Increased import prices (due to a low NZS), and increased incomes, will force price inflation up to 4% p.a. by December 2000.
- Price inflation, and the adverse balance of payments, will cause the 90-day bill rate to move up in the 7-8% range in calendar 2000.
- Don Brash will be placed in a 'can't win' situation, when he seeks to strengthen an under-valued NZ$ by raising interest rates. The Reserve Bank's anti-inflation moves will clash head-on with Michael Cullen's low dollar/low interest policies.
- NZ wage increases will average 3% in 2000. Salaries and bonuses of top executives will continue to rise at levels which will provoke public indignation.
- Superannuation and welfare benefits will be increased as a % of the average wage.
- During 2000, it will be decided that the next general election will be based on 100 MP's ... two-thirds electoral and one-third party-list.
- The private sector will show inertia, as well as enterprise, in 2000. A major challenge will be to overcome attitudinal and sunk-cost inertias, and to channel resources into new technologies.
- The rate of obsolescence, of capital plant and equipment, will increase. As creative intelligence progressively provides better and less costly means.
- The new technologies will be less capital intensive and more intelligence intensive. There will be less need to use foreign capital and less need to sell NZ assets into foreign ownership.
- Creative intelligence will be perceived as the principal generator of our economic wealth and general well-being. We will benefit immensely by bringing in first-class scientists and technologists from overseas.
- In 2000, New Zealand will have great opportunities to apply its creative and pioneering skills in the sci-tech areas of computer programming, genetics, nano-biology, biochemistry, telecommunications, and high-skilled manufacturing.
- Government will increase its financial support for top-level research in promising frontier fields of science and technology, and will increase the number of sci-tech scholarships.
- The costs of running our universities will be an increasing drain on the public purse, and fee-levels will be an increasingly heavy burden on students ... and this while a large part of tertiary education is geared to past rather than to future needs. It will be apparent in 2000 that the direction, emphasis and organisation of NZ tertiary education needs to be completely rethought.
- It will be recognised that government tertiary education subsidies need to be selectively allocated in order to achieve optimum strategic positioning of the nation's knowledge and skills.
- Private medicare services will lose further support, as public health services improve.
- Solar UV-rays will damage immune systems and will increase the incidence of internal cancers, as well as external melanoma.
- Political implications of the proposed common Aust-NZ currency will be seen as detrimental to the interests of most New Zealanders. This proposal will not proceed.
- With a Labour-Alliance government, New Zealand will tend to a more neutral stance in international relations. and to be more trade-friendly with all countries.
- Globally, 2000 will be another serious natural disaster year. As more core heat reaches the surface, the world will experience numerous large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions ... and climate-change effects will often be severe.
- In adjustment of rotational differentials, the Euro-Asia land mass will move slightly East relative to the Africa land mass, causing large earthquakes along the Iran/Caucasus/Turkey/Greece/Balkans/Italy/Sicily/Tunisia/Algeria/Morocco plate-margin fault-line.
- Large earthquakes are also predited for Pakistan, China, Japan, Philippines, Alaska, California, Mexico, Central America, Peru and Chile.
- There will be volcanic eruptions in Iceland, Kamchatka, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, West Indies, Colombia and Chile. Hawaii's Mauna Kea will erupt more spectacularly than usual.
- While no major earthquakes, above Richter 7, are predicted for New Zealand in 2000, the risk of a large quake in the next twenty years warrants an upgrading of civil defence readiness.
- Seismic projections based on past records will have very little relevance in 2000 and beyond. Some countries, rated as of low seismic risk, will experience quakes. There will be heavy insurance payouts globally in 2000.
- In many countries, defence against natural disasters will be as important as defence against foreign incursions.
- In New Zealand, consideration will be given to bringing civil defence under Army command, and to the formation of Army civil defence units, with voluntary recruitment.
- Most latitudes will experience lower winter temperatures and higher summer temperatures in 2000. Hot, dry summers will cause droughts and disastrous fires in many countries.
- In 2000, there will be further devastating floods in China, India, Bangladesh, Europe, USA, and Central America.
- In some countries, heavy rains followed by hot weather will result in serious pest infestations.
- Most areas of New Zealand will have increased rainfall. Many rivered and lakeside areas will be flooded, and urban flooding will occur where storm-water drainage systems fail to cope. There will be numerous large land-slips in many provinces.
- Due to increased rainfall, the NZ hydro lakes and most water tables will be at satisfactory levels.
- In New Zealand, the incidence of air, road, rail and sea accidents will increase. Cost-cutting, and skimping on preventive maintenance and safety inspections (and lack of common-sense) will be major factors in this increase.
- In 2000, the Clifford Bay ferry-terminal proposal will become less attractive to Tranz Rail.
- Above-average rainfall, in many parts of Australia, will be a help to Australian farmers.
- NZ real estate prices will increase, on average, by 3% in 2000. Price increases in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch cities will be above the average, and most rural price increases will be below average. Dairy farm values will hold up well.
- Carefully selected investments, related to new technologies, are indicated. However, on the NZ sharemarket, there will be a serious shortage of suitable investment opportunities, and investors may be forced to look overseas. This shortage will be an indication of our economy's poor gearing to future needs.
- In 2000, savings will continue to be at a low level, and the personal borrowings of New Zealanders will reach record highs.
- The price of fish will rise. In view of the global fish shortage, and New Zealand's huge fisheries potential, high priority will be given to the discovery and development of new fishing areas. Prudent investments in this industry will be timely.
- Year 2000 will present journalists with important challenges as to their leadership role in society.
- New Zealand's leadership, regarding women's rights and opportunities, will receive warm acclaim worldwide, and local momentum for this cause will be maintained.
- In relation to crime and disorder, more people will come to realise that society needs ethical discipline and faith ... and that, in neglecting these necessities, they are weakening the moral underpinning of society.
- In 2000, most New Zealanders will become more receptive to gene therapy, and to the genetic modification of foods.
- There will be a cooling of USA-Europe relations, due mainly to conflicting trade interests.
- Globally, the majority opinion will be that Iraq and its people have suffered enough, and that punitive measures should cease.
- There will be simmering peace in the Balkans and the middle East, but there will be ongoing violent confrontations in Africa, Southern Russia, Caucasus, and Indonesia.
- New Zealand will have a very good sports year, including:
- Victory in the America's Cup.
- A good haul of medals at the Olympics.
- A strong resurgence by the All Blacks.
- Encouraging improvement in rugby league performance.
- More overseas golfing trophies.
- A very good showing in motor sports.
- Equestrian successes (in breeding, racing and show-jumping).
- Noteworthy accomplishments by women in netball, softball, rugby, golf, cricket, and horse racing (riding and training).
- Excellent general participation in a widening array of promising new sports.