The Next 60,000 Years / Vast Changes
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Never have prediction science and stance strategy been so necessary to our wellbeing. So many great changes are being born, or in gestation, that assumptions of status quo continuance are incredibly obtuse and invite calamity. It is not an exaggeration to say that most of today's flourishing industries will be either defunct or minimalised by year 21.00. Industries most affected will include railroads, shipping, mining, metals, forestry, civil engineering, roading, oil, coal, gas, power generation and distribution, publishing, meat processing, agriculture and pastoral farming. The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters; the general increase of crime and civil disorder; the onset of the mini-iceage (from 2100); the lessening powers of governments; and rapidly increasing power of the corporate giants ... add to the almost exponential growth-rate of change. All from 2100?, no, some much sooner. The energy and nanobio revolutions will start in a few years' time.
In its initial stages, nanobio production will be too costly for commercial marketing but, within fifty years, some nanobio products will be on the open market. Nanobio cloths and building materials will be of lower price and superior performance than, for instance, natural wool and natural wood. Nanobio metals will also prove to be cheaper and more effective than those presently available. By 2100, the range of nanobio products, and the high level of their production and sales, will have a dramatic effect on the general patterns of supply and demand.
By 2100, at least one-half of the foodstuffs consumed in developed countries will be from bio-assembler production, with major adverse effects on agricultural and pastoral economies. The market value of farming land will have fallen drastically, and rural populations generally will have experienced reduced incomes. A major advantage of bio-assembler production is that it can take place in or close to consumer markets ... and the savings in freight and handling costs will be very significant. By 2100, some bio-assembler 'package plants' will be cheap enough for small communities to buy and operate on a private enterprise or cooperative basis. The low-income and unemployed groups will benefit greatly from cheap, good-quality production.
By 2100, gold and other precious metals will have been bio-assembler produced, and their market prices will have plummeted. Many large companies will be liquidated as a consequence of bio-assembler production. As more production and supply will take place close to the markets, international trade will be reduced, along with freight requirements. Politically, the power and influence of countries with oil, mineral and other natural resources will diminish: bio-assembly will make most of such resources virtually redundant. With new methods of energy production, most countries will be energy-independent by 2100.
Although, in its initial stages, bio-assembly will be sheltered under patent protection, patents will later become largely unenforceable. Nanobio scientists and technicians will be in great demand from 2005 on. There will be greater emphasis on bio-engineering, microbiology and bio-chemistry at universities and tertiary institutes of technology. Creative, skilled people, in associated professions, will command high levels of remuneration. It is noteworthy that inputs of finance will be relatively small in relation to nanobio research and production, for key expertise will be the most important factor by far.
Living conditions will vary enormously from country to country and locality to locality. Once the mini-iceage is under way, from 2100 on, geographical situation will be of great importance. Shelter from solar ultra-violet, radiation leakages, and terrorist release of biotoxins, becomes extremely important. The quality of government, law and order, medical care, and education will be high on the list of priorities. By 2100, communication technologies will have progressed to the stage where learning can take place satisfactorily in one's own home. Schooling centres will still be necessary for backward students.
Arguments from authority, and 'let's follow the leader' teaching and learning, tend to breed mediocrity, lack of imagination, and lack of creative initiative. Increasingly, outstanding discoveries will be made, not because of but in spite of standard systems of education. Genetic engineering will increase mental abilities enormously for those who take advantage of available technologies. DNA-upgraded intelligence will have greatly improved input, storing, recalling, sorting, computing, analysing, visualising, imagining, and creative capabilities. DNA-upgrading will have conferred, upon individuals, capabilities which will out-perform computers, particularly in respect of imagination, visualisation and creativity. Mental DNA-upgrading will save our species from the zombiist consequences of 'IV and other entertainment enslavements.
Politically, the nanobio displacement of human labour will move most political stances towards the socialist left, and the ownership of many means of production will become largely communal. The general trend will be towards communal ownership.
In respect of law and order, there will be a distinction between policed areas and non-policed areas. In non-policed areas, people will have to provide their own means of protection and defence. The large enclaves will be self-sufficient as to security, and there will also be a large number of smaller gated and protected areas. Much security will be provided professionally and commercially ... but, generally, outside the enclaves, conditions will be more dangerous and people will be more exposed to violence and crime. Administration of justice, by the courts, will become more removed from equity, and more a matter of wealth and influence. more and more, outside the enclaves, people will arrange, not only their own protection, but also their own retribution. By contrast, order and justice will be maintained at high standards within the large enclaves.
The enclaver federation will be the dominant world-power by 2150, and enclaver finance, credit and currency will have undoubted universal acceptance. Federation card-carrying membership will be a guarantee, not only of credit, but also of personal safety, for the Federation will take care of its own.
Gene therapy, much of it by oral medication, will be able to cure most health disorders by 2050. Genetic science will move ahead so rapidly that, by 2200, over three million people will have been bio-upgraded. The life-expectancy of these 'genos' will have increased to 150 years. Intelligence upgrading will commence about 2050, and will have an enormous influence upon the future of our race.
Highly capable humanoid robots will be popular and, by 2100, the best of them will be capable of self-programming and self-improvement. The human/robot duo phenomenon will be enormously effective, and will have very wide and powerful -implications. The bio-computer development will bring computer functions closer in kind to the human: computers will start to think like humans by 2050.
Let us now give some consideration to climatic and seismic aspects. The mini-iceage will bring fairly rapid falls of temperature to the middle latitudes from 2100 on, with drastic consequences to grain and other farming. The effects on the rice harvests will be particularly devastating. Most wheat growing areas will also be hard hit. Under these circumstances, nanobio foods will be a godsend, and a real life-saver. During the mini-iceage, the low latitudes will not be greatly disadvantaged, but the middle latitudes will be severely affected and there will be substantial migratory movements to the warmer climes.
Japan will be hit by a 'double whammy' of plunging temperatures and seismic disasters. As core-heat comes closer to the surface, Earth's volumetric expansion causes more ocean-floor subduction under the Japanese coasts and, from 2100 on, living conditions for most of the Japanese people will become very hard indeed. It is as well that Japan will be at the forefront of most scientific and technological developments, for they will be in sore need of benefits arising. Severe and worsening living conditions will motivate the Japanese to sponsor space exploration and starship development. Not only Japan but many other countries, around the Pacific 'rim of fire' will be adversely affected by an upsurge of volcanism and large earthquakes ... and here we mention Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Kamchatka, and almost the entire western coastal regions of North, Central and South America. California, in particular, will be hard hit.
Many other parts of the world will suffer also from seismic upheavals. In adjustment of rotational differentials, the Eurasian land mass will move slightly East relative to the African land mass, causing large earthquakes along the Iran/Caucasus/'rurkey/Greece/Balkans/Italy/Sicily/Tunisia/Algeria/Morocco plate-margin fault-line. A major part of Southern Europe will be devastated by year 3000. From 3000 on, there will be much rifting worldwide, as Earth expansion moves tectonic plates apart, and construction ridges will become more active. Added to all this, Southern Asia will experience very large quakes, due to isostatic 'orange peel' adjustments to Earth expansion.
By year 3000, it will be patently obvious that Earth habitation remainder time is dwindling, and that a general exodus is unavoidable, and that the future of our race is among the star-planets.
Collapsed-matter technology will result in a superabundance of available power and the development of neutralised gravity (NG) systems, using tractor-beams via satellites. NG technology will cancel out roading, tunnelling, bridging, and other transport and traffic constraints. The ability to use NG vehicles for personal transport ... to move self, family and friends anywhere at will, will herald new and marvellous freedoms and life-enrichment. Spectacular architectural changes will accommodate direct entry of NG vehicles at any required height. City traffic congestion will become a thing of the past. Further development of collapsed-matter technology will enable the construction of huge starships and, by year 3000, the first colonising starships will be leaving for the star-planets: more about this in the next chapter. It is noteworthy that, as the mini-iceage causes worsening living conditions in the middle latitudes, hard-pressed families and groups will move themselves and their possessions in NG vehicles to low-latitude desert areas, and using nanobio water-starter cultures, they will create oases for themselves.
www.NormanSpencer.co.nz / The Next 60,000 Years / Vast Changes